Only Saudi Arabia (with 262 billion barrels and roughly one quarter of the earth’s total resources) has more oil.At the moment, Iraq legally exports about two million barrels a day as part of the UN “food for oil” programme. Most of its oil production facilities are in dire need of technical modernisation, but the UN sanctions keep foreign investors out. If sanctions were lifted after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, transnational energy corporations could start exploiting Iraq’s huge oil fields.With the help of $20bn (£13bn) of investment in new and existing facilities, Iraqi oil output could soar within a few years to seven million barrels a day That would be roughly a 10th of global consumption. Abundant supply would lead to a price drop, which is just what lagging Western economies need.

Last September George Bush’s former economic adviser Larry Lindsey put the war aim bluntly when he said: “When there is a regime change in Iraq, you could add three to five million barrels of production to world supply [per day]. The successful prosecution of the war would be good for the economy.”Americans currently burn 21 million barrels of oil a day, roughly half of which is imported. As the country’s domestic crude production is going to fall by an estimated 12 per cent over the next decade, imports will have to provide for two thirds of its total energy demand in 2020.Since the 1973 oil crisis, Opec has used oil as a pawn to gain leverage over the West. In an effort to decrease its dependency on the sheikhs, the US has sought for years to “diversify its oil supplies”. The problem is that many non-Opec oil fields, such as those in the North Sea, are approaching depletion. At the same time, the International Energy Agency estimates that booming economic growth in countries such as China and India is likely to cause a surge in global oil consumption from today’s 73 million barrels per day to 90 million in 2020.The influence of the Saudi petrol sheikhs will grow especially.

Already, the US imports about 2.6 million barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia every day. The scale of its reserves puts the desert kingdom in a unique position to dictate prices to the West; it is the only country in the world capable of acting as a so-called ” swing supplier”. To compensate for production losses like those caused by the current crisis, the Saudis are capable of boosting production from eight to 10.5 million barrels per day.Many people in Washington are far from comfortable with the Saudis’ power. The country is turning out to be an embarrassing, and perhaps even dangerous, ally.