The experience of defeat in 1974 was sufficient to provoke a massive ideological re-evaluation; the defeat of the leader in an election, the junking of the post-war consensus and the advent of what later became Thatcherism. Since the Second World War, the longest period of opposition the Conservatives have had to endure was from October 1964 to June 1970. So there is nothing inevitable about political revival, and nothing immutable about two-party alternation. If there were, all the Tories would have to do is wait.
Let us assume, for a moment, that the Tories would regard the 18 years out of power just experienced by Labour as being a disaster of unprecedented magnitude.

Another election, and it will be you exercising all those exciting prerogatives of power: banning foods, meeting pop stars and threatening the Serbs with air strikes. But what if it ain’t so? What if “will” is really “may”? The last time a Liberal prime minister evacuated No 10, perhaps he too thought, “We’ll be back”, before adjusting his monocle and climbing into the back of the Daimler Seventy years on, his successors are still waiting. In any case, in an age of satellite television, the mullahs’ return to the Middle Ages is doomed from the start Welcome back, realpolitik.. “ONE DAY,” the serious and respected columnist solemnly warned a hubristic post-Budget Labour Party, “the Conservatives will be a credible opposition.” And that is, after all, the natural order of things.

The West’s problem is not fundamentalism itself, but violence. Terrorism against tourists in Egypt is a product more of a lack of education and employment in an overpopulated country, than of doctrinal disputes between Muslims. So Mr Khatami’s meeting with the Pope symbolises that there need be no clash of civilisations between Islam and the West. Leaders from both civilisations should co-operate to propagate the compassionate values central to both Christianity and Islam.The West must throw off its fear of a mythical Islamic threat, and its reliance on force to contain it.

There’s no ethical reason for us to ignore Saudi Arabia’s oppression of its Shia minority while we criticise Syria’s abuses of human rights. The reactionary, undemocratic monarchies may not be able to afford their pro-Western stance as, with oil prices low, their people’s standard of living falls.This moment also marks an opportunity for the West to become more tolerant of Islam. It is hypocrisy to divide the region into “bad”, terrorist states (Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya), and “good”, capitalist ones. The victory of moderates and women in recent elections shows that Iran sees opposition to the West is neither feasible nor desirable.
With oil prices of $10 a barrel (in real terms, the same as before 1973), the West can now reappraise its relations with Iran and the whole of the Middle East.